Spillovers of the Greek Crisis to Southeastern Europe: Manageable or a Cause for Concern?

During the boom years in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis, Greece established close economic ties with the Southeastern European (SEE) region. As a consequence, the current Greek sovereign debt crisis could potentially have adverse economic implications for SEE. Both real and financial transmission channels might have a bearing, though in most countries real economic linkages do not seem as strong as the degree of interconnectedness in the realms of banking and finance, where risks might materialize both directly and indirectly (i.e. via changes in expectations and risk perceptions). So far, the Greek crisis has only had a relatively limited impact on SEE. Available buffers and policy tools have helped SEE to cope with the related risks and also provide some more room for the region to address vulnerabilities caused by the Greek crisis that may materialize in the future. Possible challenges appear to be largest in the realm of banking, even though banking sector adjustment during the crisis has been fairly orderly so far. However, the recent intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in euro area countries may put the macrofinancial resilience of SEE countries to a much stiffer test, given its ramifications on external demand, potential negative feedback loops affecting European banks and a further rise in global risk aversion.