Stabilization and Structural Reforms in Brazil after the Real Plan : A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This article analysis the effects of the stabilization policies and structural reforms after the Real Plan over the Brazilian economy. Utilizing a computable general equilibrium model, the study simulated alternative policies that were compared with the historical path of the Brazilian economy during this period. The simulations showed that a stronger recession would happen in the case of a devaluation of the exchange rate or a reduction in public expenditures or an increases in the import tariffs. The best alternative policy to generate growth and to improve the income distribution would be a more accelerated devaluation in the exchange rate combined with a more aggressive reduction in import tariffs. These measures would resulted in a better economic performance and in a reduction in the external and internal public debt as well as avoided the exchange shock and the strong cut in public expenditures adopted in the end of 1998 and beginning of 1999