Strategic forecasting on the FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve consists of voting and non-voting members. Apart from deciding about interest rate policy, members individually formulate regular inflation forecasts. This paper uncovers systematic differences in individual inflation forecasts submitted by voting and non-voting members. Based on a data set with individual forecasts recently made available it is shown that non-voters systematically overpredict inflation relative to the consensus forecast if they favor tighter policy and underpredict inflation if they favor looser policy. These findings are consistent with non-voting member following strategic motives in forecasting, i.e. non-voting members use their forecast to influence policy.
Year of publication: |
2011
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Authors: | Tillmann, Peter |
Published in: |
European Journal of Political Economy. - Elsevier, ISSN 0176-2680. - Vol. 27.2011, 3, p. 547-553
|
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Monetary committee Inflation forecast Forecast errors Monetary policy Federal Reserve |
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