Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions

Mark Setterfield and Robert A. Blecker

This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and firms. The resulting account is consistent with the main stylized facts that characterize the evolution of the US PC since 1948: the disappearance and subsequent reappearance of a 'standard' PC (relating the level of the inflation rate, not the change in this rate, to the rate of unemployment); and the flattening of the PC since the 1990s.

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Year of publication:	2022
Authors:	Setterfield, Mark ; Blecker, Robert A.
Publisher:	Düsseldorf : Hans-Böckler-Stiftung
Subject:	Phillips Curve \| inflation \| unemployment \| natural rate hypothesis \| bargaining power \| institutions \| Phillips-Kurve \| Phillips curve \| Arbeitslosigkeit \| Unemployment \| Natürliche Arbeitslosenquote \| Natural rate of unemployment \| USA \| United States \| Strukturwandel \| Structural change \| Inflation \| Theorie \| Theory \| Verhandlungsmacht \| Bargaining power