Structural unemployment and the output gap in Germany : evidence from an SVAR analysis within a hysteresis framework

The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and López-Salido (2000) allowing for full hysteresis on the labour market. Our identification of the model implies long-lasting output gaps for Germany – especially for the disinflation period of the 1980s.

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Year of publication:	2002
Authors:	Fritsche, Ulrich ; Logeay, Camille
Publisher:	Berlin : Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Subject:	Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit \| Konjunktur \| Kapazitätsauslastung \| Arbeitsmarkt \| Insider-Outsider-Modell \| VAR-Modell \| Schätzung \| Deutschland \| Structural unemployment \| output gap \| structural VAR \| insider-outsider model

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Series:	DIW Discussion Papers ; 312
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	849530318 [GVK] hdl:10419/18047 [Handle] RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp312 [RePEc]
Classification:	C32 - Time-Series Models ; J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search ; E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; E12 - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260640