Structured count data regression

Overdispersion in count data regression is often caused by neglection or inappropriate modelling of individual heterogeneity, temporal or spatial correlation, and nonlinear covariate effects. In this paper, we develop and study semiparametric count data models which can deal with these issues by incorporating corresponding components in structured additive form into the predictor. The models are fully Bayesian and inference is carried out by computationally efficient MCMC techniques. In a simulation study, we investigate how well the different components can be identified with the data at hand. The approach is applied to a large data set of claim frequencies from car insurance.