Study on GHG emission reduction potential of EU-related maritime transport and on its impacts : final report

A study of the GHG emission reduction potential of maritime transport up to 2030 was executed under a contract of the European Commission (contract no. CLIMA.B.3/ETU/2013/0015). In this study a reference scenario and CO2 abatement scenarios were developed for global and EU-related maritime transport from 2012 to 2030. The reference scenario included the analysis of: the transportation volume, the economic growth rate (4.25% global and 1.55% for Europe annually) and the development of ship specifications (growth of average ship size and implementation of EEDI and LNG as a fuel). The abatement scenarios were based on Marginal CO2 Abatement Costs Curves for ten individual vessel categories. According to the reference scenario, the annual CO2 emissions of the EU-related maritime transport would increase from 190 million ton in 2012 to about 208 million ton in 2030. The abatement scenarios would lead to CO2 emission reductions in the range of 15% to 30% in 2030 , compared to the reference scenario for 2030, and 7% to 18% reduction compared to the 2012 reference. In most cases these reductions are with savings in Total Costs of Ownership (TCO - sum of investment & operational costs).