Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: Model application and results

The present model and methodology described in Part I of this work are applied to perform a comprehensive risk analysis of the dam-break flood of five reservoirs in the Haihe River Basin, China. The results indicate that the three-dimensional numerical simulation considering complex terrain can reflect the characteristics of flood routing and the three-dimensional phenomena. Based on the simulation results, it can be concluded that the risk grades of the consequences induced by a gradual or instantaneous dam break of the Dongwushi reservoir are extremely serious, as determined through the attribute synthetic approach. The results obtained from ranking the risk by the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution method are that the Dongwushi reservoir has the most serious consequences when the dam breaks followed by the Lincheng reservoir, the Miaogong reservoir and the Yunzhou reservoir, and the Youyi reservoir has the least severe consequences. Though the ranking of the relatively comprehensive risk coincides with that of the consequences, the dam safety measured by the dam failure probability plays an important role in ranking the risk. A sensitivity analysis is performed by individually increasing the weight of each criterion by 20 %, and the ranking order is not changed, suggesting that the evaluation model is reasonable, stable and reliable. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014