Supply and demand model for the healthcare workforce in the EU27 : data sources and model structure

This technical report presents the data and data sources used in the Supply ANd DEMand model for the healthcare workforce (SANDEM) to produce projections for the EU27. This model reflects the interaction between the labour market dynamics and demographic trends in shaping future EU healthcare workforce needs up to 2071. On the supply side, the model projects the evolution of the stock of practising doctors and professional nurses by age through a cohort-based model. On the demand side, the model integrates demographic projections of EU's population with weighting factors by age and sex capturing future needs according to scenarios about healthy ageing, health service utilisation, disease prevalence and public expenditures for healthcare provision. For this study, we particularly focus on data from Eurostat, World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Complementary data are derived from the 2024 Ageing report published by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN), the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) and national statistical offices. The mapping of the relevant data and data sources for EU's healthcare workforce planning shows that the main challenges are related to the lack of data on outflows (e.g. emigration, dropout, retirement).