System Estimates of Potential Output and the NAIRU

This paper proposes a new approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. The methodology models these key unobservable economic variables as latent stochastic trends within a trivariate system of observables comprising information on unemployment, GDP, and inflation. Identification is achieved through the use of a standard version of Okun's law and a Phillips curve. The performance of the procedure is investigated using Swedish quarterly data covering the time period 1970:1-1996:3

MoreLess

Year of publication:	1999
Authors:	Apel, Mikael ; Jansson, Per
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Produktionspotenzial \| Potential output \| Natürliche Arbeitslosenquote \| Natural rate of unemployment \| Phillips-Kurve \| Phillips curve \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Wirtschaftswachstum \| Economic growth \| Schweden \| Sweden
Description of contents:	Abstract [papers.ssrn.com]