Türkiye'de kısa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinin başlıca iktisadi değişkenler üzerine etkisi (Effect of Short Term Capital Movements on Main Economic Variables in Turkey)

English Abstract: Concentrating with generally accepted globalization in the latest eras with annualing the controls on capital movements, liberalization of the financial markets eased the liquization (movement) of the capital. As this way, it gave rise to becoming near with the national economies with the realization of the capital movements in global scale. In the last years, with the raising the accelaration and the mass of capital movements for the national markets, especially in emerging economies such as Turkey, high volumed uncontrolled capital assets caused unexpected macroeconomic results. More, the short term capital movements which was named as “hot money” because of its short term outgoing of the country that is canalized for holding the advantage of arbitrage opportunuties in which was occured by the interest differantiation can be seen the unstablization of the macro economic indicators such as the national income, current transaction balance by imposing the investment and consumptions by the way of foreign exchange channel.of its beared countries. Capital that was entered to a country for a speculative main, purveyed a speculative growth. In the same time, by changing the speculative expectiations into negative, foreign capital entries left its mission to the massive out goings. So, fluctuations in national markets spanned easily and these countries experienced financial crisis in some terms. That's why the possible economic and political media was inefficent, although the attemps was fulfiled in financial liberalization and and loosing the regulations before the year 1980, the foreign capital was in limited ratios. Because of this after the year 1980, by according the new economic rules Turkish economy coped drawing foreign capital in accordance with the world countries. Complete liberalization of the capital movements in the year 1989, ascending capital entries effectuated the dismiss of the problems that were caused by the Turkey's inner dynamics temporarily but that could not provide the long term growth. In that period, such a speculative growth wave never became permemant and nearly resulte with a crisis in each growth. In the last years, political stabilization with the single party era, it was percived positively by the markets. But keeping on the dominance of the short term capital movements on markets and high current account deficit always menance the markets