Tax Deficits and the Income Shifting of U.S. Multinationals

Significant controversy has emerged about the scope of the international tax planning of U.S. multinational firms, with estimates of income shifted out of the U.S., profits recognized in tax havens, and revenue loss ballooning over time. Most studies that derive these empirical estimates use macroeconomic data which support inferences drawn at an aggregate level but are not conducive to analyses at more granular levels. In this study, we use microeconomic data from firms’ publicly available financial statements to derive firm-year estimates that we use to evaluate existing aggregate estimates. We find that many estimates based on macroeconomic data are significantly overstated. We also use our firm-year estimates to analyze the distributions of these amounts within the economy. We show that all dimensions of international tax planning are concentrated in three industries and dominated by a small number of very large firms