Technical analysis accuracy at Macedonian Stock Exchange

The main task of this paper is to determine accuracy of some of widely used technical analysis techniques for MBI-10 stocks price forecast at MSE. We are testing accuracy of several technical analysis techniques: MACD (Moving-Average Convergence/Divergence), RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastic Oscillator and ADX (Average Directional Index) on the three most liquid stocks quoted at MSE and included in MBI-10 index. Technical analysis for MPT, ALK and KMB stocks was performed and recommendations were issued in June 2010, based on monthly and weekly data for the stocks' price movements during six years period from 2005 to 2010, as well as on their daily price movements from 2009 to 2010. We find that technical analysis is reliable tool for MSE stocks forecasting. Technical analysis predictions for three MSE stocks were confirmed by actual stock price movements within one year period (June 2010-June 2011). We did not find any notable differences in accuracy of use of technical analysis between stocks at MSE as well as between different technical analysis techniques.