Technological and Economic Risk Analysis of laying hen breeding applying simulation

In order to analyse risks and to choose from different decision-making strategies simulation models are often applied in several areas of animal breeding. We developed an improved Monte Carlo model for analysing laying hen breeding combined with Bayes’ statistics. On the basis of data from a company breeding broiler parents, our paperexamines the technological and economic risks of breeding a laying-hen stock with a simulation program developed by our team. During modelling we take individual costelements and the most significant factors (different forage costs, price of sold eggs, unsuitable eggs, installing day-old chicks and old animals) affecting returns into consideration. The results can be presented in tables and graphs for both sexes as well.Specific production value, cost and revenue indicators can also be formed separately, thus the simulation allows the quantification of farming risks. Both the mathematicalbackground of the program and its applicability in risk and economic analysis are presented.