Test of an inverted J-shape hypothesis between the expected real exchange rate and real output: The case of Ireland

Applying an open-economy macroeconomic model, incorporating the monetary policy reaction function and uncovering interest parity, this paper finds that the expected real exchange rate and real output exhibit an inverted J-shape relationship, suggesting that expected real depreciation increases real output during 1999.Q2-2001.Q3 whereas expected real appreciation raises output during 2001.Q4-2009.Q1. Other findings show that a higher real financial stock price, a higher world real interest rate, or a lower expected inflation rate would increase real output. Fiscal prudence may be needed as the coefficient of the government borrowing/GDP ratio is insignificant at the 10% level.