Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework

Most time-series studies in the area of export-led growth adopt a bivariate framework and neglect the role of terms of trade. Because the terms of trade have an important bearing on export earnings and income, the underlying models of these studies may have been misspecified. This study is the first to adopt a multivariate framework for South Asia as a region; and by including the terms of trade as an additional variable it tries to correct the misspecification bias of earlier studies. The evidence suggests bidirectional causality between real exports and real income in India, export-led growth in Pakistan and a no-causality result for Sri Lanka