The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points

The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually as well as the statistical model's ideal measure of the business cycle.

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Year of publication:	2002
Authors:	Evans, Charles L. ; Liu, Chin Te ; Pham-Kanter, Genevieve
Published in:	Economic Perspectives. - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. - 2002, Q III, v. 26, no. 3, p. 26-43
Publisher:	Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Subject:	Recessions \| Economic indicators \| Index numbers (Economics) \| Business cycles

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Language:	English
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

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