The adoption of lotteries in the United States, 1964 - 2007. A model of conditional and time-dynamical diffusion

The paper examines the determinants of the diffusion of state lotteries as a process of policy innovation. After more than 100 years of prohibition, U.S. states began to establish lotteries in the 1960s. The article uses statistical event history analysis to show that the adoption and diffusion of state lotteries depends on fiscal, political, and regional factors of competition as well as on normative factors of social legitimization. The article develops two further arguments, first by discussing an advanced model of regional diffusion that views the regional effect as being dependent on the ideologicalinstitutional context and second by analyzing time dynamics in the diffusion process to show how initial explanatory factors change over time. In general, the findings point to the institutional environment as a factor influencing the diffusion of organizations.