The business cycle in Poland: where do we stand?

This Country Focus analyses and interprets the statistical characteristics of the Polish business cycle. It also identifies leading and lagging variables and shows that the economic fluctuations in Poland differ to some extent from those in other emerging and mature economies, with Polish growth notably more volatile and government expenditure highly erratic. The available data on GDP growth suggest that the Polish economy is approaching the peak of the second business cycle since the start of economic transformation from a centrally planned to a market economy. The current upswing is to some extent similar to the one of 1995-1997 which ended in large macroeconomic imbalances (increasing unemployment, spare capacity, widening fiscal and current account deficits). However, Poland now appears to be better positioned than after the last cycle and should be able to avoid a repeat of that outcome.