The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes

While analyses of export instability and diversification policies typically focus on aggregate earnings, a conflict can arise between income instability at the aggregate and household levels. Diversification can reduce a country's aggregate income instability and simultaneously increase the instability experienced by many households, and perhaps by every household in the country. We demonstrate how alternative export portfolios can produce this conflict in instability. The conflict means that the conclusions from previous empirical studies need to be qualified and policy recommendations need to be carefully formulated.