The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis.

Two indicators are proposed: the fi rst is the probabilistic indicator of the acceleration cycle (IPCA – indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération), which aims to detect economic acceleration and deceleration phases. The second is the probabilistic industrial recession indicator (IPRI – indicateur probabiliste de récession industrielle), which aims to estimate the probability of a recession in the industrial sector.

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Year of publication:	2008
Authors:	Ferrara, L.
Published in:	Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France. - Banque de France. - 2008, 13, p. 49-61
Publisher:	Banque de France
Subject:	economic cycles \| turning points \| acceleration cycle \| probabilistic indicators \| Markov chain models

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	C32 - Time-Series Models ; C51 - Model Construction and Estimation ; E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009274736