The Dynamics of Hostile Activity and the Prediction of War

In an earlier article (Muncaster and Zinnes, 1983) a dynamic model was presented that linked hostile interaction, protracted conflict, and war. The key variables in the model included interaction, grievance, fear of war, and a pull to war. The present article extends the first model by including the amount of hostile activity. Given this additional factor it is possible to predict not only the time at which a war will occur, but also the level of hostility in the system necessary for war to occur. The model further indicates why some hostile interactions cycle in extended protracted conflict patterns while others shoot off to war.