The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions in oligopolistic industries

This paper embeds an oligopolistic industry structure in a real options framework in which synergy gains of horizontal mergers a rise endogenouslya nd vary stochastically over time. We find that(i) mergers are more likely in more concentrated industries; (ii) mergers are more likely inindustries that are more exposed to industry-wide shocks; (iii) returns to merger and rival firms arising from restructuring are higher in more concentrated industries;(iv) increased industry competition delays the timing of mergers; (v) insufficiently concentrated industries, bidder competition induces abid premium that declines with product market competition;and (vi) mergers are more likely and yield larger returns in industries with higher dispersion in firm size.