The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises : A New Database with Post-COVID-19 Implications

We present a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 92 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but much heterogeneity in the pace of NPL resolution. We document how high and unresolved NPLs deepen post-crisis recessions and use a machine learning approach to establish pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems. These predictors—a set of weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions—help shed light on post-COVID-19 NPL vulnerabilities