The dynamics of short- and long-run capital mobility: evidence from a time-varying parameter error-correction model

This article analyses the dynamic evolution of capital mobility in eight Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 1850 to 1992. We estimate an error-correction model of saving and investment that allows to distinguish between short- and long-run capital mobility. The parameters of the error-correction model are allowed to be time-vary ing and are estimated using the Kalman filter and maximum likelihood technique. We find that both short- and long-run capital mobility was very high at the end of the nineteenth century but since then decreased in most countries. However, the magnitude of changes in long-run capital mobility is very small while the absolute change of short-run capital mobility is substantial.