The dynamics of Spanish public debt and sustainable paths for fiscal consolidation

This paper analyses possible patterns for the Spain debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables (such as the US and French GDP growth rates, prices of raw materials, ECB monetary policy stance) and domestic policy instruments is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions, together with policies aimed to stimulate the growth and fulfilling Maastricht restrictions on deficit, play a fundamental role for fiscal consolidation in Spain and help to reach a sustainable pattern.