The dynamics of the schooling dropout in Peru: a framework using duration models

Despite the fact that in Peru was observed an improvement in enrollment during the nineties, even performing better than the rest of the Latin American countries, dropout and schooling delay persist avoiding a substantial increase in the society’s education level. This research analyzes the dynamics of dropout during the school cycle and, at the same time, characterizes those children that are more prone to leave the school. The results show that economic constraints, mainly in the rural zones and for the urban boys, and non-economic problems, basically in the case of urban girls, are the main determinants of the interruption of the education. Likewise, simulation of a cash transfer program was performed. The results induce to think that the program would have an effect over the dropout, reducing it between 14% and 36%. Finally, if the program is supported by the reduction of the first year school delay, the dropout rate will diminish between 50% and 78%.