THE EFFECT OF DEFENCE R&D ON MILITARY EQUIPMENT QUALITY

Studies into the output of R&D generally take a qualitative view of case histories and do not provide a quantitative template for the analysis of 'cause and effect' suited to investment management. This study describes the development of a quantitative model of the relationship between defence R&D and equipment capability. Using open source data, the military equipment quality of 10 nations has been evaluated from 1971 to 2005 and time-dependent correlation with R&D investment back to 1951 analysed. We find that the nations studied 'got what they paid for', with their R&D expenditure positively correlated with equipment capability. The observed variability in equipment quality was most highly correlated with R&D spend 10-25 years earlier.