The effect of deployment on first- and second-term re-enlistment in the US active duty force

Why should deployment affect re-enlistment? In our model, members enter the military with naive beliefs about deployment and use actual deployment experience to update their beliefs and revise their expected utility of re-enlisting. Empirically, re-enlistment is related to the type and number of deployments, consistent with the learning model. Non-hostile deployment increases first-term re-enlistment but hostile deployment has little effect except for the Army, where the effect is positive. Both types increase second-term re-enlistment. Interestingly, first-term members with dependants tend to respond to deployment like second-term members. In addition, deployment acts directly to affect re-enlistment, not indirectly through time to promotion.