The Effect of Increasing the Number of Wind Turbine Generators on Generator Energy in the Australian National Electricity Market from 2014 to 2025

This report investigates the effect of increasing the number of wind turbine generators on energy generation in the Australian National Electricity Market’s (NEM) existing transmission grid from 2014 to 2025. This report answers urgent questions concerning the capability of the existing transmission grid to cope with significant increases in wind power and aid emissions reductions. The report findings will help develop a coherent government policy to phase in renewable energy in a cost effective manner. We use a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effect of five different levels of wind penetration on energy generation. The five levels of wind penetration span Scenarios A to E where Scenario A represents ‘no wind’ and Scenario E includes all the existing and planned wind power sufficient to meet Australia’s 2020 41TWh Large Renewable Energy Target (LRET). We compare the relative effect of five different levels of wind penetration on energy generation to the effect on emissions. We also use sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effect on energy generation of growth in electricity demand over the projections years 2014 to 2015 and weather over the years 2010 to 2012. The sensitivity analysis uses simulations from the ‘Australian National Electricity Market (ANEM) model version 1.10’ (Wild et al. 2015)