The effect of temperature experiences on climate adaptation policy prioritization: Evidence from the European Union

As climate change intensifies, societies face more frequent and severe heatwaves, while cold episodes also continue to occur. This study investigates how heat and cold anomalies and extremes influence EU citizens' support for national climate adaptation policies-both relative to mitigation measures and in absolute terms. To address these questions, this study links large-scale cross-sectional preference data from the 2024 European Investment Bank Climate Survey with high-resolution ERA5 climate data. The analyses reveal that experiencing extreme heat and positive temperature anomalies significantly increases adaptation support, especially in relative terms, aligning with the construal matching premise rooted in the psychological distance framework. In contrast, cold exposure reduces absolute adaptation support and increases people's relative mitigation focus. Overall, these findings underscore the role of temperature experiences in shaping climate policy preferences and, as extreme weather worsens globally, highlight the need for targeted climate communication that balances immediate adaptation needs with essential long-term mitigation targets.