The EU-Mercosur agreement: Expectations and concerns in light of the new geopolitical situation

Since the second half of 2022, the debate regarding the ratification of the EU-Mercosur agreement has gained significant momentum on both sides of the Atlantic. On one side, there's the recently elected Brazilian president who supports its ratification, a libertarian Argentinian presidential candidate who believes the agreement doesn't go far enough, and a Paraguayan president who has stated that negotiations with the EU will be terminated if the parties do not reach a deal by December when Paraguay assumes Mercosur's presidency. On the other side, the European Union is grappling with ongoing supply-chain disruptions and the geopolitical implications of the Russian war against Ukraine, leading to a need to reevaluate its global political and economic relationships and the varying opinions within the EU regarding the agreement. This policy brief will analyze significant developments since 2019, explore the potential benefits of the EU-Mercosur agreement, and address concerns that have been raised. It will also assess the economic roles of other key actors in the region, namely the USA and China, and the economic sectors of particular importance, such as agriculture and raw materials, in the ongoing discussions surrounding the conclusion of the EU-Mercosur agreement.