The European Union and its new neighbors: an estimation of migration potentials

This paper provides a first quantitative assessment of the migration potential involving the enlarged EU and its new neighbors. Based on new theoretical developments in migration theories, it develops an empirical model which highlights the main migration determinants in the EU. As a next step, the model is estimated with the Hausman and Taylor as well as the GMM panel data estimators. The observed/fitted migration ratios are subsequently calculated from an out-sample technique. Results show that there is still a significant migration potential from Maghreb countries towards Southern European countries. A second significant potential concerns the new Eastern neighbors with regard to Germany and Eastern EU countries.