The Extent of Trade Mis-Invoicing in Turkey: Did Post-1990 Policies Matter?

We analyze the extent and the direction of trade misinvoicing in the context of the new policy environment that has affected the Turkish economy in the post 1990 period. Utilizing bilateral partner country statistics between Turkey and its major trading partners, we observe persisting export overinvoicing and an oscillating pattern of import misinvoicing at the aggregate level. Country-specific data reveal different patterns. As opposed to the general trend in misinvoicing, exports to China are underinvoiced and imports are overinvoiced. We also analyze how the liberalization policies and the customs union agreement with the European Union countries affect trade misinvoicing. We find that, with trade liberalization policies, import misinvoicing has decreased at the aggregate level. However, contrary to the expectations, customs union agreement did not help decrease the extent of trade misinvoicing in Turkey.