The Future(s) of Pollution Control: The Case of the Acid Rain Program

This study examines the potential success of the futures contract in SO2 Emissions Allowances. Factors affecting the success of the futures contract are presented including the uncertainties of air pollution and public utility regulation, emission control technology, electricity demand, and electric utility needs for an allowance price discovery mechanism for long-range compliance planning under risk. If SO2 futures market is successful, there is some potential for expanding futures trading to other pollutants. Since SO2 is uniquely suited to a national market, duplication of SO2 futures for other pollutants may be difficult.