The impact of bilateral investment treaties on FDI inflows into India : some empirical results

After a run of adverse investor-state dispute settlements, India has recently denounced all its erstwhile investment treaties. New investment treaties need to be negotiated on the basis of a new Model Treaty that privilege state rights over investor rights. We study the impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India before the denunciation with the intent of inferring the consequences of changing the system. Our work captures the effects of international investment agreements on FDI inflows specifically into India. We construct an empirical model drawing on the Gravity Model, and estimate parameters using generalised method of moments. The results show that while the individual signing of bilateral investment treaties does not influence the inflow of FDI, the effect of the cumulative bilateral investment treaties signed is statistically very significant—suggesting that the spill over effect of signing a series of bilateral investment treaties are important, signalling a regime of overall protection to investors. The importance of institutional variables in influencing FDI tells us that overall participation in a system governed by international investor agreements influenced the inflow of FDI positively and therefore recent policy changes should be viewed with caution.