The Impact of Ebook Distribution on Print Sales : Analysis of a Natural Experiment

Digital distribution introduces many new strategic questions for the creative industries, notably how the use of new digital channels will impact sales in established channels. We analyze this question in the context of ebook and hardcover sales by exploiting a natural experiment that exogenously delayed the release of a publisher’s new Kindle ebooks in April and May 2010. Using new books released simultaneously in ebook and print formats in March and June 2010 as the control group, we find that delaying ebook availability results in a 43.8% decrease in ebook sales but no increase in print book sales on Amazon.com or among other online or offline retailers. We also find that the decrease in ebook sales is greater for books with less pre-release buzz. Together we find no evidence of strong cannibalization between print books and ebooks in the short term, and no support for the sequential distribution of books in print versions followed by ebook versions