The impact of macroeconomic variables, demographic structure and compulsory superannuation on share prices: the case of Australia

This paper investigates the impact of the population in the 40–64 age band on share prices, using an annual time series data set for the period 1965–2002, and the impact of the superannuation fund on share prices using quarterly time series data for the period 1988 Q1 to 2002 Q4. In accordance with Poterba's suggestion, we have also used real GDP, interest rates and inflation as control variables in both models. Using cointegration and the error correction mechanism we found that the specified models are robust. The variables under study for both models are cointegrated, and long-run relationships exist between the variables. We also found that the population in the 40–64 age band and the superannuation fund positively and significantly affect share prices separately in the long run. Journal of International Business Studies (2006) 37, 687–698. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400220