The Impact of Spatial Heterogeneity in Land Use Practices and Aquifer Characteristics on Groundwater Conservation Policy Cost

Estimation of agricultural policy cost for a given level of groundwater conservation requires the establishment of an accurate baseline condition. This is especially critical when the benefits and cost of any conservation program are generally estimated relative to the status quo policy or baseline situation. An inaccurate baseline estimate will lead to poor estimates of potential water conservation savings and agricultural policy cost. Over a 60-year planning horizon per acre net present value is as much as 29.8% higher for a study area when aquifer characteristics are assumed to be homogenous and set to their average area value than when the heterogeneity in aquifer characteristics is explicitly modeled.