The Long-Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size
Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the timing of the transition becomes. This finding has important implications for projection methodology, as well as for policies related to the consequences of long-term levels of population size. Copyright 1999 by The Population Council, Inc..
Year of publication: |
1999
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Authors: | O'Neill, Brian C. ; Scherbov, Sergei ; Lutz, Wolfgang |
Published in: |
Population and Development Review. - The Population Council, Inc., ISSN 0098-7921. - Vol. 25.1999, 4, p. 749-756
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Publisher: |
The Population Council, Inc. |
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