The need for accounting-integrated data streams for scenario-based planning in primary production : responding to COVID-19 and other crises

Purpose: This study aims to explore the need for improved data sources and models for COVID-19 and climate-related risk scenario analysis in primary production. The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting global markets for agricultural produce, making short-term forecasting highly uncertain. Meanwhile climate-related risk continues for agricultural businesses. Farmers and their accountants need to plan and make estimates about the potential effect of COVID-19 and ongoing climate risks to their natural and financial capital and so they need accounting-integrated biophysical and socio-economic data streams. Design/methodology/approach: This research note reviews the current state of scenario-based planning for COVID-19 and other risks for Australian businesses generally, in addition to planning for farming businesses more specifically. Discussion of the authors’ current research in integrating accounting and farming data for water-related risk caused by climate and other challenges is presented as an analogous case. Findings: Review and analogous case comparison demonstrate the need for farm data to be integrated more efficiently and effectively with accounting data for accurate scenario planning for COVID-19 and other risks, including those posed by climate. Practical implications: While not strangers to the need for scenario analysis, given exposure to ever-increasing natural resource and climate variability, this research note highlights how primary producers and their accountants require increased accounting-integrated farm data and systems to make judgements, assumptions and estimates about the potential effect of COVID-19 and ongoing climate risks to their business. Social implications: The sustainability of the agricultural sector is of great relevance to all of us and so the development of tools and resources that can assist food producers in times of ongoing climate pressures and new crises, such as COVID-19, is important. Better understanding of such risks can help farm businesses develop effective strategies which minimise the potential loss of agricultural value resulting in improved flows of greater capital value for society. Originality/value: Through application to the analogous case of water-related risk and decision-making, the research note demonstrates that linking of biophysical and accounting data streams will be essential for evidence-backed numbers included in scenario plans with enough legitimacy to be interrogated inside and outside of the business. The “best estimate of the directors” is no longer enough in challenging socio-economic and biophysical times ahead for primary producers.