The OURSE model : simulating the world refining sector for 2030

The development of a model of the World Refining for the POLES model (Contract n°151559-2009 A08 FR - with the Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of Commission of the European Union) aims to represent the oil product's supply at a world-wide level in a global energy model. The World oil refining industry faces to several challenges such as the increasing oil derivatives demand in the transport sector, the improvement of the specifications of these products, the crude oil availability and the limitation of carbon emissions. An aggregated refining model linked to the POLES energy model has been developed to study these questions. The OURSE (Oil is Used in Refineries to Supply Energy) model is a world-wide aggregated refining model which is designed to simulate the world oil product supply for the POLES (Prospective Outlook for the Longterm Energy System) model. OURSE is able to simulate the impact on the world refining industry of changes in the crude oil supply (in costs and qualities) as well as in the oil product demand (in terms of level, structure and specifications). OURSE also enables to assess the consequences of a carbon emission regulation (caps and taxes) as the adoption of various kinds of alternative fuel policies. More precisely, these impacts are evaluated as regards the world refining structure (investments), but also its balance (production and trade of petroleum products), its pollutant emissions (CO2 and SO2) and its costs (of production, investments, etc.). Simulations for 2030 were performed. Thus, the paper presents the results of a prospective exercise for the oil refining industry which has been carried out with the worldwide refining model OURSE according to the oil product demand projections of European Commission for Europe with the PRIMES model (European Commission, 2010) and the IFP projections for the rest of the World.