The propagation of business expectations within the European Union

Anja Kukuvec, Harald Oberhofer

This paper empirically investigates the propagation of fims' expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine EU-wide official business survey data with world input-output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input-output-linkages and apply space-time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillovers in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.

MoreLess

Year of publication:	March 2020
Authors:	Kukuvec, Anja ; Oberhofer, Harald
Publisher:	Munich, Germany : CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute
Subject:	business expectation formation \| propagation \| input-output linkages \| spillovers \| space-time model \| Spillover-Effekt \| Spillover effect \| Erwartungsbildung \| Expectation formation \| EU-Staaten \| EU countries \| Input-Output-Analyse \| Input-output analysis \| Theorie \| Theory \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Frühindikator \| Leading indicator