The Prospects of the Poor: A Set of Poverty Measures Based on the Probability of Remaining Poor (or Not) in Indonesia

This paper proposes and operationalizes an approach to measuring poverty based on the probability of remaining poor or not. The paper does the following: we review the global and Indonesia literature on poverty dynamics; we propose a set of poverty lines based on the prospects for the poor using the Indonesian Family Life Survey for 2000–2007; we discuss determinants of poverty at the various poverty lines and consider the poverty probability trends in Indonesia for the period 2000–2013 using the national socio-economic survey, the Susenas.