The Relationship Between Inflation and Individual Credit Utilizatıon : An Examination on Turkey with the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Since the increase in the amount of individual credit usage has a positive and negative effect for economies, its effect on inflation continues to be a subject discussed in the literature. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between individual credit and inflation between 2004:1 and 2020:1 quarter periods for Turkey. Although the most commonly used methods in cointegration tests in the literature are the Johansen-Juselius and Engle-Granger tests, the assumption that these tests are stationary at the same level as the prerequisite is the weakness of these tests. However, Peseran et al. (1999) and then in the ARDL boundary test developed by Peseran et al. (2001), the lack of a condition requiring the series to be stationary at the same level provides convenience in the studies. In the study, it is determined that the inflation variable at level and the individual credit variable at first difference is stationary . Therefore, it was decided to use the ARDL limit test in the analysis of the study. In the analysis, it was concluded that the effect of individual credit on inflation in the long run is higher than the absolute effect of inflation on individual credit. In the short term, the opposite results were obtained among the variables