The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part 2: Specification and calibration results of the land-use change submodel

In this paper, part 2 of a three-part series, we present the formal specification and calibration results of the land-use change component of the second-generation California urban futures model. The land-use change component consists of a series of nonordinal multinomial logit models of site-specific land-use changes. These models incorporate spatial measures (for example, mix of adjacent land uses, and proximity to similar activities) as well as local policy and accessibility measures. Various model forms are developed and explained, as are multiple approaches to evaluating the equation for goodness-of-fit.