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It’s not just for inflation: The usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting
Meyer, Brent, (2013)
A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation
Clark, Todd E., (2011)
Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy
Carriero, Andrea, (2011)
The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail - but some don't
Silver, Nate, (2012)
What is the probability your vote will make a difference?
Edlin, Aaron, (2009)
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
GELMAN, ANDREW, (2012)