The Structure of Tourism Revenues in Turkey: Evidence from Fractional Integration under Multiple Structural Breaks

This paper investigates time series properties of the tourism revenues in Turkey over the period from 1997:01 through 2010:03. First, we determine the integration order by using different versions of Robinson tests. Second, we test if the tourism revenues show any structural changes over the sample period under consideration by using Bai and Perron multiple structural break tests. The results show that the tourism revenues follow a non-stationary long memory process when we ignore potential structural breaks. When we take structural breaks into consideration and adjust data for the breaks, we still find some evidence of non-stationary long memory behavior in tourism revenues. These results imply that shocks to tourism revenues in Turkey have a permanent effect.