The use of growth curves in forecasting interfuel substitution processes

Four interfuel substitution processes (ISPs) are modeled using growth curves based on the data for Southeast Asian countries. Income and price variables are incorporated in the models so that an ISP can be viewed in the context of a cause and effect system responding to the changes in the economic environment. The results show that growth curves can describe the real situations adequately. The integration of the substitution models for the four ISPs in a unified framework for making national fuel share forecasts is discussed. This framework is subsequently used to project future fuel demands for Thailand based on two different scenarios.