Time Dynamics and the Introduction of New Technologies within IO Analysis

Although Input-Output (IO) models are widely accepted tools for regional scientists and economists alike, there are still many issues to confront during their application, including estimating impacts relative to future years, dynamic impacts, and the introduction of new technologies within economic systems. Oftentimes, especially within energy and environmental subject areas, applications call for not only the introduction of new technologies but also for forecasts of economic impacts that may take years, or even decades, to fully implement. Despite the static nature of the IO modeling framework, these types of situations can be handled successfully and in ways fully consistent with the principles underlying the framework. This paper describes such a methodology, developed in the context of an input-output application for the estimation of impacts associated with the introduction of new energy technologies over a twenty year time horizon, modeling new and existing fossil-fuel technology scenarios from inception through the year 2030. As a demonstration of the method, application results are presented and briefly discussed.